A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress

The article presents the author's predictions on AI progress, focusing on a skeptical outlook towards current AI trends and timelines. While noting advancements like GPT-4.5, the author argues that despite improvements, there is insufficient evidence that current AI models will lead to AGI, citing diminishing returns and limitations in creative capacities. The piece explores the disparity between perceived intelligence of AI models and actual capabilities, emphasizing the distinction between hype and real-world effectiveness.

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