My AI skeptic friends are all nuts

LLM-assisted coding tools have improved dramatically in recent months and can be genuinely productive when treated as guided collaborators rather than autonomous code generators, though skepticism about long-term codebase effects and hype cycles remains warranted given the rapid iteration and uncertain counterfactual of alternative tooling investments. The shift from viewing these tools as either magic solutions or useless "stochastic parrots" reflects a "stone soup" dynamic where billions in investment and complementary technologies are driving real improvements, but stabilization may take years before their true impact can be assessed.

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