nickbostrom.com
2026-02-28
This 2026 working paper by Nick Bostrom examines the optimal timing for developing superintelligence, using person-affecting models that incorporate safety progress, temporal discounting, and quality-of-life differentials. The analysis concludes that even high catastrophe probabilities are often worth accepting, and for many parameter settings the optimal strategy is "swift to harbor, slow to berth" -- moving quickly to AGI capability, then pausing briefly before full deployment.
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